Golf Betting Strategy
Golf betting, if studied correctly, can provide you with the biggest winners at the biggest odds. Due to the fact that there are so many players in each competition, especially the majors, prices on genuine contenders can be generous.
Additionally, there is often a big favourite – more often than not, Rory McIlroy. In general, favourites tend to underperform, (if you disregard the Woods ‘boom’ a few years ago). This generally leaves the field open for betting interpretation.
Avoiding Big Names
Looking at a golfing line-up for a big championship, it is likely that your eyes will initially veer towards the familiar names of Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and the like. However, it is frequently the slightly less talked-about players that emerge from the pack and challenge for the big events – just look at Jordan Spieth and Billy Horschel as examples from the past few years. These players are usually dismissed in the market and so it is the punter’s duty to sieve out these dark horses and find some real value.
Perhaps the most difficult task, however, is trying to asses which golfer is backing himself – i.e. who is riding high on confidence before the first tee which, in turn, will lead others to have confidence in him. The intricacies and eccentricities of golf mean that players go in and out of form constantly; indeed, a player could be out of form for two years and then go and win the Masters.
However, there are concrete signs to watch out for. The fluctuations in golf betting markets can often provide a big clue. If a player who has been off-form is fancied in the market, then clearly there is confidence behind him. As well as this, you must watch out for recent tournaments because, as with most sports, recent form is always a decent yardstick with which to measure potential success.
Although as discussed, players do not necessarily need to have excelled prior to a tournament to perform well. It is therefore a good idea to look at the different courses that respective golfers perform well on. For example, at next year’s Masters, it will be worth looking at Bubba Watson, but also at Peter Hanson, K.J Choi, and Phil Mickelson, for whom Augusta holds no fears.
Other variables to look out for include weather conditions, the ability to handle pressure and the intruding effects of any niggling injuries. Perhaps the most important thing to remember when betting on golf is not simply to back the favourite. In more cases than not, during the event itself the odds of each player will fluctuate dramatically and the favourite can finish at a much bigger price after the close of day one or two.
As such, wait for the event to start and, if you find that your pre-tournament fancy has dropped a couple of shots, you will be glad that you did not back him. Alternatively, if you see your pick playing well, then pile in.
Golf outright betting can often be one of the most difficult and frustrating activities to do in a bookmakers. However, when you pick that winner, it is always hugely satisfying and, importantly, profitable. Picking a winner in golf is arguably more difficult than any other sport, given that the field can often be made up of 130 or more players.
Of course, the counterpoint to this – and the reason people keep on returning to the televised fairways – is that there are inevitably some very juicy odds on offer. In many tournaments, it is no surprise to see the favourite going off at odds in double-figures. You will very rarely see a favourite in a golf tournament starting at shorter than around 4/1, and even odds that short are unusual.
So, this begs the question of how exactly you identify value picks when looking through the odds:
Analyse the course and expected conditions. Different courses play very differently, and certain players are particularly suited to certain types of fairways and greens. Different lengths of course, different types of rough and different designers can all play a key role in categorising a course. Certain players enjoy playing in the desert, while others excel on windy coastal links.
Picking out players suited to their surroundings. There is an abundance of statistics available to analyse golfers who will be taking part in any given tournament, from the most basic information such as driving distance and greens in regulation, to more obscure and unusual statistics such as strokes gained through putting and approaches from the left-hand rough. These will provide invaluable for your golf outright betting.
Match-up the demands of a course to the most important statistics. The important thing is to match up the demands of a course, determined from its characteristics, to the most important statistics to take advantage of that course. If it is well-known for its length, looking at those players that score highly on the driving distance ranking would be wise. Similarly, if it is known for having a lot of well-positioned bunkers around the green, looking at those players with a strong sand save percentage would be smart.
Study golfer’s current form. Form is another key aspect to note in golf betting. As in any sport, success often breeds more success. If a player is repeatedly achieving top-10 or top-20 finishes, they are often worth keeping an eye on. In golf betting, you are always looking for a player to place, as much as to win. A top-5 finish for a player at decent odds can cover your stakes for the next couple of weeks, so a player that is consistently around the top of the leader board can prove profitable, even if he is not winning.
Look at golfer’s previous performances at the tournament. Finally, look at previous performances at the tournament. As noted earlier, history can be important and if a player’s game is suited to a particular course where he has achieved success before, chances are he may go well again.
Golf betting can be a very frustrating business, as you can go weeks without seeing any returns. Golf is unlike any other sport, because you can have a different leader every five minutes. However, when your 80/1 shot finally tops the leader board, it will cover any losses and provide additional funds well into the future.